Utah Economic ReportThe Governor’s Utah Economic SummitApril 11, 2013Natalie GochnourAssociate DeanDavid Eccles School of BusinessUniversity of Utah

Utah’s race to the topU.S. economy “bumbling” alongWhat should keep us awake at night?City/state rebornOutline

A tribute to economic leadershipUtah’s race to the top

Utah Job Growth RateSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

Utah Job CreationSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

Utah Number of UnemployedSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

Utah Unemployment RateSource: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and Salt Lake Chamber

Utah Net MigrationSource: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

Utah Personal Income Growth RateSource: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

Utah ExportsSource: World Trade Center Utah(in billions)

Utah Dwelling Unit PermitsSource: Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, Revenue Assumptions Working Group(in thousands)

Utah Retail Sales Growth RateSource: Utah State Tax Commission and Utah Governor’s Office of Management and Budget

Top Seven Job Growth StatesSource: Bureau of Labor StatisticsJanuary 2012 – January 2013U.S. average = 1.5%

Utah Job Growth by IndustryFebruary 2013Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

A criticism of economic leadershipU.S. economy bumbling along…

-- Mark TwainThe difference between the right word and the almost right word is the difference between lightning and lightning bug.

Job Losses in Recent RecessionsSource: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. New Monthly Payroll JobsSource: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Unemployment Rate by DurationSource: CalculatedRiskBlog.com and the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Besides North KoreaWhat should keep us awake at night?

Fiscal insanityUtah education warning signsCertain uncertaintyRisks

Fiscal Insanity

Fiscal Crises Naming ConventionsDebt ceiling stand off (August 2011) ANDREASuper Committee deadline (December 2011) BARRYFiscal cliff negotiations (Fall 2012) CHANTELFiscal cliff (January 2013) DORIANStart of sequestration (March 2013) ERINDebt ceiling revisited (May 2013) FERNADNext crisis GABRIELLE

Utah Fiscal Checklist

U.S. Fiscal Checklist

Utah Education Warning Signs

Percent Utahns with Bachelor’s Degree of HigherBy Age Cohort: 2011Source: American Community Survey, 2011Utah College Completion Rates are Falling

Utah’s Math Test Score Rankings are Headed in Wrong DirectionSource: National Center for Education Statistics, The Nation’s Report CardUtah’s rank among states

Utah Ranks Last Among Peer StatesSource: Utah Foundation and National Assessment of Educational Progress4th Grade Reading Test Scores: 20095NationalRank

Certain Uncertainty

Unchartered waters

The future is brightA City/State Reborn